Wednesday, November 17, 2010

General Motors IPO

Ah, Government Motors IPO...Great road show.  Oldsmobile Gone.  Pontiac Gone.  Saturn Gone.  Hummer Gone.  Saab Gone.  Bankruptcy Over.  Media loves it.  Time to IPO at the peak of the market.  Sure.  Whatever.

GM declared Chapter 11 Reorganization on June 1, 2009 with $94.7B net debt.  With the wave of a magic wand, GM is back 17 months later and lighter than ever.

I'm not part of the "lucky" few who will get some free money at the taxpayer's expense.  The media reports that the IPO will be $33/share (Govt needed ~$44/share to break-even).  Translation:  Market Value of $50 billion.

YEAR       MARKET VALUE / REVENUES / PROFITS
2010     to be decided
2009     $2.2B / $149.0B / lost $30.9B
2008     $10.5B / $182.3B / lost $38.7B
2007     $18.1B / $207.3B / lost $2.0B
2006     $16.7B / $192.6B / lost $10.6B
2005     $16.0B / $193.5B / +$2.8B
1955-2005 (Fortune 500 archive for GM)
2001 = last time GM's Market Value was ~$50B.

I don't know enough about the prospectus, but I'm avoiding GM in the public after-market.  Purely on principles.  If a gun was put to my head, I would rather own Ford (trading at 16.68).  Without any bailout money, they are driving towards a net-debt-free balance sheet with profits.  Way down the road, I would rather own Tesla (trading at 29.49) - which is the biotech of the car industry.  If the electric car gains some traction, this is the stock to own.

Disclaimer:  I have no position in $F $TSLA $GMS.

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