12 Non-Obvious Predictions for 2012

Here are my non-obvious macro predictions for 2012 given without any reasons..

1. Former Colonies Bail Out Countries :  Brazil will bail out Portugal.

2. The World's Population Decreases : This will end certain Ponzi-like Schemes.

3. North & South Korea Starts to Unify : OccupyPyongyang.

4. Iran Attacked, and not by Israel : Hackers protect the Hormuz.

5. Poland and Turkey Act as Europe's Growth Engine : Take PIIGS Out of Headlines

6. BRICs will become BIT : Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey as other Emerging Markets Regress

7. US and European Elections Followed Up With Mass Protests : End of Entitlements to cause Civil Wars.

8. Cuba's Economy Doubles : With or Without a Castro at the helm.

9. Something From Space Will Change the World : Not talking about aliens or asteroids, but rather new resource discovery or satellite issues.

10. Entrepreneurial Creative Destruction and Micro-finance on Hold : The next "Big Thing" will much harder for the small guy or gal.

11. Asian & South American Currency Crisis Part II : Dollar's strength (sans QE3) creates unintended collateral damage.

12. Stockgut's Predictions are Guaranteed to be Wrong : Then again maybe #12 is wrong.  Hope you've been entertained from a so-called non-expert.

"PIIGS" was so summer 2011

In case you've been wondering what my tweets with "PIIGSS.LAMMMBSS.FFKNG.CAVE" mean.  It's my new acronym for the EuroZone countries...330 million users worldwide.


Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Greece
Spain
Slovakia
.
Luxembourg
Andorra
Malta
Monaco
Montenegro
Belgium
San Marino
Slovenia
.
France
Finland
Kosovo
Netherlands
Germany
.
Cyprus
Austria
Vatican City
Estonia


Some countries probably don't deserve to be "acronymized" but All-for-one-One-for-all.  The acronym does have an Added Bonus:  it has a subliminal prediction in it!  It doesn't translate well into other languages, but oh well, you get the point.  Feel free to use it.  It's not trademarked, so go ahead, create some bumper sticks.


Troika Links:
European Commission http://ec.europa.eu/ 
European Central Bank http://www.ecb.int
International Monetary Fund http://www.imf.org

SodaStream vs. Coke trade-off

The Sodastream "fad" seems to be catching on.  It's butting heads with the established (juggernaut) soda-makers, Coca-Cola and Pepsi.  I thought it would be fun to run a simple break-even analysis.

The analysis assumes the purchase of SodaStream's "Genesis Home Soda Maker" w/starter kit (includes 1x60L carbonator, 2-carbonating bottles, 12x1L sodamix).  After the starter kit is consumed, the user would have to purchase 1x60L carbonators and 1x12L sodamix packs.  The SodaStream option was compared to your standard 1-Liter Coke bottles.


Assumptions:
This analysis does not factor in the following 1) nutritional or environmental benefits/detriments for either product 2) water, electrical, wastage or replacement costs using the SodaStream unit 3) disposal or storage costs using the Coke bottles 4) opportunity or transportation costs associated with either option.

Unit to buy	Liters	Price	Price/L
Carbonator	60	$10	$0.167
Sodamix	12	$5	$0.417
Coke Bottle	1	$2	$2.000

Conclusion:
The SodaStream user would break-even around the 60th Liter of soda based on the table below.  After the 129th Liter, you could buy another maker for your friend with your savings!

However, if you bought 2L Coke Bottles for $2 each, then the Sodastream user would break-even around the 200th Liter.  That's a lot of soda to drink...although some studies show that males, between the ages of 12-29 years,  drink almost 2 liters a day.

Table:
(Key: L# = Liter, M = Maker, B = Bottle, C = Carbonator, P = Pack, $ = Cumulative Dollars)

L#	M	B	B	C	P	$	Coke	$	Diff
0	99	0	0	-	-	99	2	2	(97)
1	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	4	(95)
2	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	6	(93)
3	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	8	(91)
4	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	10	(89)
5	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	12	(87)
6	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	14	(85)
7	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	16	(83)
8	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	18	(81)
9	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	20	(79)
10	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	22	(77)
11	0	0	0	-	-	99	2	24	(75)
12	0	0	0	-	0.42	99	2	26	(73)
13	0	0	0	-	0.42	100	2	28	(72)
14	0	0	0	-	0.42	100	2	30	(70)
15	0	0	0	-	0.42	101	2	32	(69)
16	0	0	0	-	0.42	101	2	34	(67)
17	0	0	0	-	0.42	102	2	36	(66)
18	0	0	0	-	0.42	102	2	38	(64)
19	0	0	0	-	0.42	102	2	40	(62)
20	0	0	0	-	0.42	103	2	42	(61)
21	0	0	0	-	0.42	103	2	44	(59)
22	0	0	0	-	0.42	104	2	46	(58)
23	0	0	0	-	0.42	104	2	48	(56)
24	0	0	0	-	0.42	104	2	50	(54)
25	0	0	0	-	0.42	105	2	52	(53)
26	0	0	0	-	0.42	105	2	54	(51)
27	0	0	0	-	0.42	106	2	56	(50)
28	0	0	0	-	0.42	106	2	58	(48)
29	0	0	0	-	0.42	107	2	60	(47)
30	0	0	0	-	0.42	107	2	62	(45)
31	0	0	0	-	0.42	107	2	64	(43)
32	0	0	0	-	0.42	108	2	66	(42)
33	0	0	0	-	0.42	108	2	68	(40)
34	0	0	0	-	0.42	109	2	70	(39)
35	0	0	0	-	0.42	109	2	72	(37)
36	0	0	0	-	0.42	109	2	74	(35)
37	0	0	0	-	0.42	110	2	76	(34)
38	0	0	0	-	0.42	110	2	78	(32)
39	0	0	0	-	0.42	111	2	80	(31)
40	0	0	0	-	0.42	111	2	82	(29)
41	0	0	0	-	0.42	112	2	84	(28)
42	0	0	0	-	0.42	112	2	86	(26)
43	0	0	0	-	0.42	112	2	88	(24)
44	0	0	0	-	0.42	113	2	90	(23)
45	0	0	0	-	0.42	113	2	92	(21)
46	0	0	0	-	0.42	114	2	94	(20)
47	0	0	0	-	0.42	114	2	96	(18)
48	0	0	0	-	0.42	114	2	98	(16)
49	0	0	0	-	0.42	115	2	100	(15)
50	0	0	0	-	0.42	115	2	102	(13)
51	0	0	0	-	0.42	116	2	104	(12)
52	0	0	0	-	0.42	116	2	106	(10)
53	0	0	0	-	0.42	117	2	108	(9)
54	0	0	0	-	0.42	117	2	110	(7)
55	0	0	0	-	0.42	117	2	112	(5)
56	0	0	0	-	0.42	118	2	114	(4)
57	0	0	0	-	0.42	118	2	116	(2)
58	0	0	0	-	0.42	119	2	118	(1)
59	0	0	0	-	0.42	119	2	120	1
60	0	0	0	-	0.42	119	2	122	3
61	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	120	2	124	4
62	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	121	2	126	5
63	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	121	2	128	7
64	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	122	2	130	8
65	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	122	2	132	10
66	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	123	2	134	11
67	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	124	2	136	12
68	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	124	2	138	14
69	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	125	2	140	15
70	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	125	2	142	17
71	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	126	2	144	18
72	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	126	2	146	20
73	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	127	2	148	21
74	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	128	2	150	22
75	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	128	2	152	24
76	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	129	2	154	25
77	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	129	2	156	27
78	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	130	2	158	28
79	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	131	2	160	29
80	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	131	2	162	31
81	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	132	2	164	32
82	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	132	2	166	34
83	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	133	2	168	35
84	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	133	2	170	37
85	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	134	2	172	38
86	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	135	2	174	39
87	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	135	2	176	41
88	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	136	2	178	42
89	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	136	2	180	44
90	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	137	2	182	45
91	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	138	2	184	46
92	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	138	2	186	48
93	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	139	2	188	49
94	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	139	2	190	51
95	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	140	2	192	52
96	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	140	2	194	54
97	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	141	2	196	55
98	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	142	2	198	56
99	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	142	2	200	58
100	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	143	2	202	59
101	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	143	2	204	61
102	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	144	2	206	62
103	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	145	2	208	63
104	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	145	2	210	65
105	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	146	2	212	66
106	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	146	2	214	68
107	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	147	2	216	69
108	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	147	2	218	71
109	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	148	2	220	72
110	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	149	2	222	73
111	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	149	2	224	75
112	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	150	2	226	76
113	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	150	2	228	78
114	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	151	2	230	79
115	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	152	2	232	80
116	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	152	2	234	82
117	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	153	2	236	83
118	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	153	2	238	85
119	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	154	2	240	86
120	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	154	2	242	88
121	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	155	2	244	89
122	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	156	2	246	90
123	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	156	2	248	92
124	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	157	2	250	93
125	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	157	2	252	95
126	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	158	2	254	96
127	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	159	2	256	97
128	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	159	2	258	99
129	0	0	0	0.17	0.42	160	2	260	100

SODA closed at $31.06 on 12/2/2011